Chris Gates | The Pittsburgh Football Podcast
I’m going to make a bold prediction: Pitt football is going to finish the regular season by winning three of its final four games.
I know. That probably sounds ridiculous to some Pitt fans right now.
The Panthers have lost three straight games since Mason Heintschel suffered his season-ending injury against Virginia Tech. The offense has struggled to find consistency without him, the defense has been exposed in consecutive games, and the optimism that surrounded this team earlier in the season has largely disappeared.
But I actually came away from Pitt’s 52–23 loss to Miami feeling a little more encouraged about what this team might be capable of doing over the final month of the season.
Not because I think Pitt is suddenly going to become a dominant football team. And certainly not because I think the Panthers are going to find a way to replace everything Heintschel brought to the offense.
Rather, I think there are two specific areas where Pitt can make enough progress to start winning football games again.
Holden Geriner needs to continue developing into a competent, confident starting quarterback. And Pitt’s defense needs to figure out how to get off the field on third down.
If those two things happen, I think the Panthers have a legitimate opportunity to finish the regular season at 8–4.
Holden Geriner Doesn’t Need to Be Mason Heintschel
One of the biggest mistakes we could make when evaluating Pitt’s offense is expecting Geriner to replicate what Heintschel was doing before his injury.
Heintschel is a high-level starting quarterback in the ACC. He was capable of taking over games, making explosive plays, and putting up the kind of numbers that can carry an offense.
That’s not what Pitt needs from Geriner.
What Pitt needs is a quarterback who can consistently execute the offense, make the throws that are available, and force opposing defenses to respect the passing game.
And I actually think we saw some encouraging signs of that against Miami.
Geriner completed 18 of 32 passes for 268 yards and a touchdown against the top-ranked Hurricanes. Those numbers aren’t spectacular, but considering the opponent and how uncomfortable he looked during his first career start against North Carolina, I thought it was a meaningful step forward.
More importantly, I thought he looked considerably MORE comfortable in the pocket.
Against North Carolina, particularly in the second half, Geriner frequently looked rushed and uncomfortable. His footwork deteriorated, he threw off his back foot, and his accuracy suffered.
Against Miami, I saw a quarterback who was more willing to step into his throws, trust his protection, and give his receivers opportunities to make plays.
We saw him connect with Blue Hicks downfield. We saw him make throws to Carson Kent and create opportunities for Malik Knight.
Those are the types of plays that need to become more consistent.
And that’s important because of how opposing defenses have approached Pitt since Heintschel went down.
North Carolina recognized that Geriner was struggling and began committing more resources to stopping the running game. The Tar Heels essentially challenged him to beat them through the air, and he couldn’t do it.
Boston College presented similar challenges for Corey Dailey the following week.
That’s what happens when an opposing defense doesn’t respect your quarterback.
But if Geriner can consistently make enough throws to keep defenses honest, the entire offense becomes more functional.
Pitt has an experienced offensive line, talented receivers, and running backs capable of producing when healthy.
It doesn’t need its quarterback to throw for 350 yards and five touchdowns every Saturday.
It needs him to be efficient enough that defenses can’t ignore the passing game.
And after what I saw against Miami, I think there’s reason to believe Geriner’s moving in that direction.
Pitt’s Defense Has to Get Off the Field
The other major issue is on the defensive side of the football.
And frankly, this one might be even more frustrating.
Pitt’s defense has been getting absolutely shredded on third down.
Against Miami, the Panthers repeatedly forced the Hurricanes into situations where they should have had an opportunity to get off the field.
- Third-and-six.
- Third-and-seven.
- Third-and-11.
- Third-and-18.
- Third-and-19.
And Miami just kept converting.
That’s incredibly difficult to overcome, particularly when your offense is already dealing with the challenges of playing without its starting quarterback.
Pitt’s defensive identity under Pat Narduzzi has always been built around stopping the run, creating obvious passing situations, and then getting after the quarterback.
The Panthers are going to surrender explosive plays occasionally. That’s part of the risk that comes with playing an aggressive defense.
But there’s a significant difference between occasionally surrendering a big play and repeatedly allowing opponents to convert third-and-long situations.
And over the past couple of weeks, Pitt has struggled far too often with the latter.
Some of that comes down to execution in the secondary.
The cornerback position has been inconsistent outside of Raion Strader, who I think has played exceptionally well. Shawn Lee has had some encouraging performances but has also experienced his share of struggles.
The field safety position has been particularly problematic.
Josh Guerrier returned against Miami after dealing with injuries, and while his performance wasn’t perfect, I’m hopeful that getting him back into the lineup will provide some stability.
We’ve seen players struggle early in their careers at that position in Narduzzi’s defense before eventually figuring things out.
But the coaching staff also has to take responsibility.
If players are repeatedly struggling with the same assignments, the solution can’t simply be to keep putting them in those situations and hoping for different results.
The coaches need to identify what their players can execute successfully and put them in positions to do it.
I also want to see Pitt generate more pressure on obvious passing downs.
Whether the Panthers have been blitzing less frequently or simply haven’t been getting home with their pressure packages, something hasn’t been working.
The good news is that I don’t think Pitt needs a complete defensive overhaul.
It just needs to become more effective in situations where it has already put itself in position to succeed.
Getting off the field on third down a few more times each game could make an enormous difference.
Georgia Tech Is the Perfect Opportunity to Start Fixing Both Problems
That’s what makes Saturday’s matchup against Georgia Tech so interesting.
The Yellow Jackets are 2–5 and coming off a 49–27 loss to Boston College.
In that game, Boston College rushed for an incredible 399 yards, averaging 8.5 yards per carry and scoring five rushing touchdowns.
That’s a massive opportunity for Pitt’s offense.
If Geriner can continue playing with the confidence he demonstrated against Miami, Georgia Tech will have to respect the Panthers’ ability to throw the football.
And if that happens, Pitt should have opportunities to establish its running game against a defense that has struggled mightily in that area.
Of course, the health of Ja’Kyrian Turner and Damon Ferguson will be important. Pitt needs capable running backs available to take advantage of that matchup.
But the opportunity is clearly there.
On the other side of the football, Georgia Tech converted just two of its 11 third-down opportunities against Boston College.
That’s an offense Pitt should be capable of disrupting.
Georgia Tech quarterback Alberto Mendoza has generally been efficient this season, and running back Justice Haynes gives the Yellow Jackets a legitimate threat on the ground.
But this isn’t the Miami offense that Pitt faced last week.
If the Panthers can stop the run, force obvious passing situations, and generate pressure, they should have opportunities to improve their third-down performance.
For both sides of the football, Georgia Tech presents a chance to address the exact issues that have contributed to Pitt’s recent losing streak.
The Panthers just have to take advantage of it.
Why 3–1 Isn’t an Unrealistic Finish
Look at Pitt’s remaining schedule.
The Panthers host Georgia Tech on Halloween night, get a bye week, and then finish the regular season against Florida State, Louisville, and Cal.
Are any of those games guaranteed victories? Absolutely not.
We’ve already seen Pitt lose games against North Carolina and Boston College that looked like favorable matchups on paper.
And that’s why I understand the skepticism surrounding this team.
But I also don’t look at those four opponents and see an impossible stretch of games.
All four teams have their flaws. All four present opportunities for Pitt to compete and potentially win.
And if the Panthers can beat Georgia Tech on Saturday, they’ll enter the bye week at 6–3 with an opportunity to build on whatever improvements they’ve made.
That bye week could be especially valuable for Geriner.
He’ll have another start under his belt, more film to study, and additional time for the coaching staff to refine the offense around what he does well.
Defensively, the extra preparation time could help Pitt address its coverage issues, improve its third-down approach, and get healthier at some important positions.
I don’t expect everything to suddenly click overnight.
But I do think it’s reasonable to believe this team can improve incrementally over the final month of the season.
And given the opponents remaining on the schedule, incremental improvement might be enough.
Pitt Still Has Something to Play For
I understand why Pitt fans are frustrated.
The Panthers were playing some exciting football before Heintschel got hurt, and it’s disappointing to watch a promising season take such a dramatic turn.
But I don’t think the season is over.
I think Pitt has enough talent to win football games with Holden Geriner at quarterback.
I think the defense has enough talent to perform considerably better than it has over the past two weeks.
And I think the remaining schedule provides opportunities for this team to prove it.
It starts with two things.
- Geriner needs to continue becoming more comfortable and efficient in the offense.
- And Pitt’s defense needs to start getting off the field on third down.
Neither of those improvements requires perfection. Neither requires some dramatic transformation.
They just require the Panthers to get a little bit better at two things that have been costing them football games.
If they can do that, I think there’s a realistic path to winning three of their final four games.
I’m predicting Pitt finishes 8–4.
Now it’s time for the Panthers to prove they can do it.
Leave a Reply