The Pittsburgh Football Podcast

Chris Gates | The Pittsburgh Football Podcast

Pitt has done exactly what it needed to do through the first month of the 2026 season.

The Panthers are 4-0.

They’ve survived bad weather. They’ve won an ACC game. They’ve handled the games they were supposed to handle. And on Saturday, they completely overwhelmed Bucknell in a 59-0 win to close out the non-conference portion of the schedule.

Now it’s time for expectations to change.

Or, perhaps more accurately, it’s time for expectations to become a little more concrete.

Before the season, I predicted Pitt would finish 9-3. Four games into the season, I feel even more confident in that prediction.

In fact, barring significant injuries or some other unforeseen circumstances, I think 9-3 should now be viewed as the minimum expectation for this team.

Pitt took care of business in September

My preseason expectation was pretty straightforward: Pitt should get through September undefeated.

That’s exactly what happened.

There were certainly moments along the way that weren’t perfect. The passing game hasn’t always looked as crisp as we expected. The UCF game was played in miserable weather. Pitt didn’t play particularly well offensively against Syracuse.

But the Panthers won them all.

That’s ultimately what matters.

We’re now a third of the way through the regular season. The non-conference schedule is over, Pitt is 1-0 in ACC play, and the remaining eight games are all against conference opponents.

When you look at those eight games individually, it’s difficult for me to come up with a reasonable path to Pitt losing four or more of them.

The schedule sets up extremely well

Pitt’s next game is probably one of the most difficult to predict.

The Panthers travel to Blacksburg on Friday night to play Virginia Tech. I’ve viewed this as a swing game since the preseason, and I still do.

Lane Stadium on a Friday night is a difficult environment. Pitt has to go on the road on a slightly shortened week, and Virginia Tech is also 4-0.

At the same time, this is Year 1 for James Franklin at Virginia Tech. He’s rebuilding the program with a massive amount of roster turnover while Pitt has considerably more continuity on both sides of the football.

Could Pitt lose? Absolutely.

Could Pitt win? Absolutely.

For the purposes of setting a reasonable floor for Pitt’s season, let’s call it a loss.

After Virginia Tech, Pitt hosts North Carolina and travels to Boston College.

Those are two games Pitt should win.

North Carolina has struggled offensively, while Boston College looks like it could finish near the bottom of the ACC. If Pitt is the team we think it is, those aren’t games we should be calling toss-ups.

So even if Pitt loses at Virginia Tech, the expectation (in my opinion) should be a 6-1 record through seven games.

Then comes Miami.

Miami is the one game where expectations should be different

Pitt travels to Miami for its eighth game of the season, and I’m willing to call this one what it is.

I don’t expect Pitt to win.

Miami looks outstanding. We saw the gap between these programs when they played last season, and I don’t believe Pitt has closed it enough to make me comfortable predicting a road win this year.

Could something crazy happen? Of course. It’s college football.

But if we’re trying to establish reasonable expectations rather than imagining the best possible outcome, put Miami in the loss column.

That would leave Pitt at 6-2 with four games remaining.

And this is where the path to nine wins becomes pretty clear.

Pitt should be favored down the stretch

Georgia Tech comes to Pittsburgh on Halloween.

That’s a program going through significant transition after replacing both coordinators and dealing with considerable personnel turnover. Based on what we’ve seen so far, that’s a game Pitt should win at home.

Then Pitt gets a bye before hosting Florida State.

The name “Florida State” will naturally make people nervous, but I’m much more interested in the football team Pitt will actually be playing than the logo on the helmet.

Florida State has significant problems. Meanwhile, Pitt has also played the Seminoles well in recent meetings under Pat Narduzzi.

Again, that’s a home game I believe Pitt should win.

If the Panthers take care of business against Georgia Tech and Florida State, they’re 8-2.

That leaves two road games: Louisville and Cal.

Louisville is the other game I’ve identified as a legitimate toss-up. Playing there has historically been difficult for Pitt, and quarterback Lincoln Kienholz gives the Cardinals a dangerous playmaker.

So let’s be conservative again.

Give Pitt a loss.

That makes them 8-3 entering the regular-season finale at Cal.

Cal intrigued me entering the season, but through the first month, the transition to a new coaching staff hasn’t gone as smoothly as I anticipated. Traveling across the country for the final game of the season isn’t ideal, but Pitt appears to be the more talented and established team.

That’s a game the Panthers should win.

And there it is.

9-3.

We’re not even asking Pitt to win the toss-up games

That’s the most important part of this entire discussion.

To get Pitt to 9-3, I’m not asking the Panthers to run the table against comparable competition.

• I’m giving them a loss at Virginia Tech.
• I’m giving them a loss at Miami.
• I’m giving them a loss at Louisville.

Then I’m simply asking Pitt to beat the teams it should beat.

• North Carolina.
• Boston College.
• Georgia Tech.
• Florida State.
• Cal.

Five wins. Three losses over the final eight games.

That’s 9-3.

When you frame it that way, nine wins doesn’t feel like an aggressive prediction. It feels like the reasonable expectation.

And Pitt fans seem to largely agree.

I polled my audience on both Twitter and Instagram after the Bucknell game and received roughly 150 votes. About half of the respondents picked 9-3 as Pitt’s eventual record. Most of the remaining votes were split between 8-4 and 10-2, with almost nobody predicting 7-5.

That’s a fan base recognizing what’s in front of this team.

It’s OK to raise expectations

There’s been a strange dynamic surrounding Pitt’s 4-0 start.

Every accomplishment seems to come with a qualifier.

• They beat Miami (Ohio), but that’s a MAC team.
• They beat UCF, but the weather was awful.
• They beat Syracuse, but Syracuse might not be very good.
• They destroyed Bucknell 59-0, but it’s Bucknell.

All of those caveats can contain some truth. Pitt hasn’t proven it’s an elite football team through four games.

But at some point, we also have to acknowledge what Pitt has actually accomplished.

They’re 4-0.

Their defense has played extremely well.

They have an established coaching staff, continuity on both sides of the ball and a quarterback in Mason Heintschel who has already demonstrated what he’s capable of when Pitt’s offense is clicking.

Most importantly, Pitt has put itself in position to have a very good season.

Going 4-0 doesn’t guarantee anything. The Panthers could absolutely stumble. They could lose a game they shouldn’t. Injuries could change the complexion of the season. There are plenty of variables we can’t predict at the end of September.

But expectations aren’t guarantees.

They’re a reflection of what should happen based on the information we currently have.

And based on everything we’ve seen through four games — combined with the schedule Pitt has in front of it — I don’t think expecting nine wins is asking too much.

Pitt went 4-0 through September.

Now go 5-3 the rest of the way.

Anything better than that could make this season really interesting.

Anything worse should feel like a missed opportunity.