The Pittsburgh Football Podcast

By Chris Gates | The Pittsburgh Football Podcast

Every college football season begins with optimism.

Every fan base believes this could be the year.

The reality, though, is that most seasons are decided by a handful of swing factors — player development, injuries, close games, and whether a team lives up to its potential.

For Pitt, I don’t think the range of outcomes is all that complicated.

There’s a very clear path to a special season.

There’s also a very clear path to a disappointing one.

Here’s what both scenarios look like.

The Best-Case Scenario

The formula is actually pretty straightforward.

It starts with Pitt’s young offensive players taking the next logical step in their development.

Mason Heintschel Becomes the Quarterback Pitt Thinks He Can Be

Everything offensively starts here.

By all accounts coming out of training camp, Mason Heintschel appears to be progressing exactly the way Pitt hoped he would. That’s always worth taking with a grain of salt during August, when everyone says nice things about their own team, but the reports surrounding Heintschel have been consistently positive.

More importantly, he’s no longer learning on the fly.

He’s had an entire offseason working in Kade Bell’s offense.

Year 2 in the system should naturally bring better decision-making, more confidence, and more consistency.

If that happens, Pitt’s offense immediately raises its ceiling.

The Skill Players Continue Emerging

Quarterback development alone won’t be enough.

Ja’Kyrian Turner needs to become the playmaker Pitt believes he can be.

Freshman Damon Ferguson sounds like he’s giving Pitt additional depth at running back, while Censere Lee and several receivers have reportedly stood out throughout camp.

If those reports translate to Saturdays, Kade Bell suddenly has far more weapons than he did a year ago.

The Offensive Line Holds Together

I feel pretty good about Pitt’s starting offensive line.

The bigger question is depth.

That’s true for almost every program outside college football’s financial elite.

If the starting five stay healthy and continue developing chemistry, Pitt’s offense should have enough balance to keep defenses honest.

If they don’t, everything becomes much more difficult.

The Defense Simply Does What Pitt Defenses Usually Do

Interestingly, I don’t think the defense has to become elite for Pitt to contend.

It just has to remain what it has consistently been under Pat Narduzzi.

Some people have expressed concern about Corey Sanders replacing Randy Bates as defensive coordinator.

I’m not one of them.

Sanders has been part of this defensive staff for years, and this is still fundamentally Pat Narduzzi’s defense. The structure, philosophy, and expectations aren’t changing dramatically because of a title change.

Historically, Pitt’s defense puts the offense in position to win football games.

The offense simply has to capitalize more consistently.

Then It Comes Down to the Schedule

If Pitt becomes the team I think it’s capable of becoming, the schedule lines up well.

Looking strictly at the ACC preseason projections, Pitt faces…

• Florida State
• Cal
• Syracuse
• North Carolina
• Boston College

All teams projected in the bottom half of the conference.

Add Miami (Ohio), Bucknell, and UCF, and there’s a realistic path to eight victories simply by taking care of business.

After that, everything revolves around two games.

The Swing Games

Road trips to Virginia Tech and Louisville will likely determine Pitt’s season.

Those are historically difficult places for Pitt to play.

Virginia Tech should have an electric Friday night atmosphere, and Louisville has consistently been a difficult road trip regardless of the matchup.

Win one or both of those games, and suddenly Pitt is talking about:

• Nine or 10 wins.
• A Top 20 ranking.
• ACC Championship Game contention.
• Legitimate College Football Playoff discussion.

That’s the ceiling.

And I think it’s realistic.

The Worst-Case Scenario

The bad news is that the path to disappointment is just as straightforward.

It’s simply the opposite of everything that makes the optimistic scenario work.

The Young Offense Doesn’t Develop

Quarterback progression isn’t guaranteed.

Neither is running back development.

Neither is receiver improvement.

If those young offensive players fail to take that next step, Pitt becomes much easier to defend.

Drives stall.

Explosive plays disappear.

The offense struggles to support a defense that’s doing its job.

Injuries Hit the Wrong Position Group

Every team deals with injuries.

The question is where they happen.

For Pitt, offensive line injuries would be especially damaging.

Lose multiple starters up front, and suddenly the running game suffers.

• Pass protection breaks down.
• The quarterback loses confidence.
• Receivers have less time to get open.

One position group can create a domino effect that impacts the entire offense.

That’s probably the single biggest concern entering the season.

The Swing Games Go the Wrong Way

Even if Pitt handles the games it’s supposed to win, losses at Virginia Tech and Louisville quickly change the outlook.

Instead of competing near the top of the ACC, Pitt finds itself fighting simply to reach the upper end of bowl eligibility.

Those games feel like the dividing line between a very good season and an average one.

So Where Does Pitt Finish?

Vegas currently lists Pitt’s win total at 7.5 games.

I understand why.

The range of outcomes isn’t especially wide.

If the offense develops, Pitt probably wins nine or 10 games.

If injuries pile up or the offense stalls, six or seven wins becomes much more likely.

Personally, I think the optimistic outcome is more realistic.

Not because Pitt is perfect.

Not because there aren’t legitimate questions.

But because I think this roster has already shown it can win eight games, and now many of its most important offensive players are entering the next stage of their development rather than starting from scratch.

Nationally, Pitt isn’t getting much attention.

That’s nothing new.

But if the offense takes the next logical step, the Panthers have everything they need to surprise a lot of people this fall.