The Pittsburgh Football Podcast

By Chris Gates | The Pittsburgh Football Podcast

If you’ve listened to the national conversation this offseason, you’ve probably heard the same story over and over again.

The Ravens are the team to beat.

The Bengals are right there with them.

The Steelers?

They’re somewhere in the middle.

Maybe they’ll sneak into the playoffs?

Maybe they’ll miss them altogether?

I don’t see it that way.

I actually think the Steelers are going to win the AFC North this season.

That doesn’t mean I think they’re winning the Super Bowl.

I’m not ready to go that far.

But I do think this roster is more talented than last year’s division-winning team, and I think the changes they’ve made this offseason give them a higher ceiling than they’ve had in a long time.

Here’s how I think the season plays out.

I Have the Steelers Finishing 11-6

Overall, I have the Steelers finishing the regular season with an 11-6 record. Below, I’ll tell you how they’re going to get there.

But more importantly, I have that being enough to win the AFC North.

I know that’s going against what a lot of people are predicting.

But let’s not forget something.

The Steelers won the division last season.

And honestly, I think this year’s roster is better.

The offense has more weapons.

The coaching staff is stronger.

The defense has a chance to become even more aggressive under Patrick Graham.

There’s enough here for this team to take a step forward instead of backward.

AFC North Prediction: 4-2

Division games always decide seasons.

I have the Steelers going 4-2 inside the AFC North.

That includes:

• Sweeping the Browns.
• Splitting with the Bengals.
• Splitting with the Ravens.

That feels realistic.

Cleveland is still Cleveland.

Baltimore remains extremely talented, but they’re also adjusting to a new coaching staff, and we don’t really know what that transition is going to look like.

The Bengals are dangerous whenever Joe Burrow is healthy, but I don’t think they’ve done enough this offseason to clearly separate themselves from Pittsburgh.

To me, this division feels far more open than most people are giving it credit for.

A Fast Start

I think the Steelers get off to a really solid start.

Here’s how I have the opening stretch playing out:

Week 1 vs. Falcons — Win

Atlanta already feels like it’s entering the season in a difficult spot at quarterback. Whether it’s Michael Penix Jr. or Tua Tagovailoa, injuries and uncertainty make this a favorable opener for Pittsburgh.

Week 2 at Patriots — Loss

This feels like one of those tough early road games.

The Patriots were in the Super Bowl last season, and even though the Steelers won in New England a year ago, winning there twice in a row feels like a difficult task.

Week 3 vs. Bengals — Win

I have Pittsburgh winning its home matchup against Cincinnati before splitting the season series later in the year.

Week 4 at Browns — Win

The Browns are still rebuilding, and I think the Steelers take care of business.

Week 5 vs. Colts — Win

The Colts surprised people early last season before fading badly down the stretch. I don’t think they’re as dangerous heading into this year.

After five games, I have Pittsburgh sitting at 4-1.

At Buccaneers — Loss

This one was probably the hardest game on the schedule for me to predict.

Tampa Bay has plenty of talent, and I really like Baker Mayfield. There are some organizational questions surrounding the Buccaneers, but going on the road makes this feel like a slight edge for Tampa Bay.

Vs. Saints — Win

The Saints simply aren’t where the Steelers are as a football team.

Vs. Browns — Win

Another victory over Cleveland gives Pittsburgh a 6-2 record heading toward the middle of the season.

The Rough Patch

Every NFL team hits adversity.

I think this is where it happens for Pittsburgh.

The Steelers face three difficult games in a row:

• At Bengals
• At Eagles
• Vs. Broncos

I actually have Pittsburgh losing all three.

The Bengals game completes the season split.

The Steelers never seem to play well in Philadelphia, regardless of how good either team is, and this year’s Eagles are legitimately one of the league’s best teams.

Then Denver comes to Pittsburgh.

Before Bo Nix got hurt in last year’s playoffs, I honestly thought the Broncos had a legitimate chance to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

That’s a really good football team.

Three straight losses drop the Steelers from 6-2 to 6-5.

And that’s where a lot of people would probably start wondering whether this season is beginning to fall apart — just like it always did under Mike Tomlin…

I don’t think it does.

The Steelers Finish Strong

This is where I think the new coaching staff shows why this season feels different.

Instead of collapsing late like we’ve seen too often in recent years, I think Pittsburgh responds.

Here’s how I have the final stretch:

• Vs. Texans — Win
• At Jaguars — Win
• Vs. Ravens — Win
• Vs. Panthers — Win
• At Titans — Win

That’s five consecutive victories.

It moves the Steelers to 11-5, clinches the AFC North, and secures a playoff berth.

The Final Week Doesn’t Matter

The regular season ends with a road trip to Baltimore.

By then, I think Pittsburgh has already accomplished everything it needed to.

I have the Steelers losing that game, finishing 11-6, but resting comfortably knowing they’ve already won the division.

If Baltimore still has something to play for, while Pittsburgh’s playoff seed is essentially locked in, that outcome makes sense to me.

What Happens in the Playoffs?

Here’s where I’ll pump the brakes just a little bit.

I think this team finally wins a playoff game.

It’s been too long.

I think Mike McCarthy, Aaron Rodgers, and this coaching staff finally get the Steelers over that hurdle.

Wouldn’t it be fitting if that playoff win came at Acrisure Stadium in what would likely be Aaron Rodgers’ final home game as an NFL quarterback?

I think that’s entirely possible.

After that?

I think the run ends.

I’m not ready to predict a trip to the Super Bowl.

But I do think Pittsburgh finally takes a meaningful step forward.

Final Thoughts

This prediction really comes down to one thing.

I believe this Steelers team has a higher ceiling than the versions we’ve watched over the last several years.

• The offense should be better.
• The defense should be more aggressive.
• The coaching staff feels refreshed.
• The roster feels deeper.

None of that guarantees success, of course.

Aaron Rodgers still has to stay healthy.

The offensive line has to stay intact.

The new coaching staff has to prove it can translate all of this potential into wins.

But when I look at the entire picture, I see a football team that’s capable of surprising people.

That’s why I’m picking the Steelers to finish 11-6, win the AFC North, snap their playoff losing streak, and finally give Steelers fans a postseason victory to celebrate.

After years of feeling like every season ended the exact same way, that would be a pretty welcome change.