By Chris Gates | The Pittsburgh Football Podcast

If you asked me to sum up the Steelers heading into 2026 in one sentence, it would be this:

I have cautious optimism.

That’s probably the best way to describe how I feel.

I don’t think this is a Super Bowl favorite. (Or even a contender, if I’m being honest.)

But I also think this team has a noticeably higher ceiling than the Steelers teams we’ve watched over the last several years.

At the same time, there are some very obvious ways this season could go completely off the rails.

That’s what makes this team so fascinating.

The range of outcomes feels wider than it’s been in a long time.

So let’s break down what I think the best-case and worst-case scenarios look like.

Worst-Case Scenario: It Starts With the Quarterback

I don’t think there’s much debate about the biggest concern.

It’s Aaron Rodgers’ health.

Rodgers is 42 years old.

That’s simply reality.

If he stays healthy, I think the Steelers have a chance to compete for the AFC North.

If he doesn’t…

Everything changes.

And I mean everything.

The drop-off from Aaron Rodgers to the rest of the quarterback room is enormous.

That’s not meant as an insult to Will Howard.
It’s not a shot at Mason Rudolph.
It… Might be a shot at Drew Allar (who I don’t think is very good).

But really, it’s simply acknowledging where those players are in their careers.

If Rodgers goes down, you’re suddenly asking one of those quarterbacks to carry a football team that I think was built specifically to win with Aaron Rodgers.

That’s a completely different conversation.

The Entire Ceiling Changes

This isn’t one of those situations where you lose your starting quarterback but still have a veteran backup capable of keeping everything afloat.

I don’t see it that way.

If Rodgers misses significant time, I think the Steelers go from having a chance to win the division to simply trying to survive the season.

You’re no longer talking about playoff runs.

You’re probably not even talking about making the playoffs.

You’re trying to figure out what Will Howard is.

Or you’re watching Mason Rudolph become exactly the quarterback we’ve already seen him be.

That’s a dramatic shift.

It’s probably the fastest path from optimism to disappointment.

Injuries Up Front Would Be Just As Damaging

Quarterback isn’t the only health concern.

The offensive line worries me too.

I actually think the Steelers have better depth than they’ve had in recent years.

I like the starting five.

I think there are more capable backup tackles than we’ve seen in a while.

But if multiple injuries start piling up — especially on the interior — that changes everything.

The running game suffers.

Rodgers gets pressured more often.

The passing game becomes less efficient.

And suddenly all of the excitement surrounding the offense disappears.

Every NFL season comes down to health to some extent.

For this Steelers team, that might be more true than ever.

Best-Case Scenario: Everything Fits Together

Now let’s flip the conversation.

Because if the important pieces stay healthy…

I think there’s a legitimate path to this team surprising people.

Aaron Rodgers Plays Better Than He Did Last Year

Notice I didn’t say Aaron Rodgers becomes MVP Aaron Rodgers again.

That’s not what I’m expecting.

I’m expecting something much more realistic.

I think Rodgers has a chance to play better than he did a season ago because everything around him is better.

The receiving corps is deeper.
Mike McCarthy’s offense fits him better.
There are more legitimate passing options.

Defenses can’t simply key on DK Metcalf every snap.

Suddenly Rodgers is distributing the football instead of forcing it.

The offense becomes more efficient.

More efficient drives mean more points.

More points mean the defense can play with leads instead of constantly protecting one-score games.

Everything starts feeding itself.

The Offensive Additions Pay Off

This offseason wasn’t about adding one superstar.

It was about improving the entire supporting cast.

Michael Pittman Jr. gives the Steelers a legitimate second receiver.
Germie Bernard adds another weapon.
Rico Dowdle strengthens the running back room.
The offensive line looks deeper.

None of those moves individually transform a franchise.

Together?

They completely change what the offense is capable of becoming.

If those pieces perform the way I think they can, this offense should be noticeably better than what we’ve watched the last several years.

Patrick Graham Unlocks the Defense

I’m also really excited about what Patrick Graham could do defensively.

Everything coming out of training camp points toward a defense that’s going to be much more aggressive.

More multiple.
More creative.
Move T.J. Watt around.
Move linebackers around.
Create confusion before the snap.
Force offenses to adjust instead of letting them become comfortable.

The Steelers already have talented defensive players.

Now they have a coordinator who seems determined to maximize that talent instead of asking everyone to line up in the same place every week.

That’s exciting.

The Secondary Creates More Splash Plays

I also think the secondary has a chance to surprise people.

Joey Porter Jr. is one of the better young corners in football when he’s on the field.
Asante Samuel Jr. has been one of the stars of training camp.
Jaquan Brisker adds another physical presence.
Deshon Elliott brings experience.
Jalen Ramsey gives you another proven veteran.

Pair an improved secondary with a more aggressive pass rush, and suddenly turnovers become much easier to create.

Pressure forces mistakes.

Talented defensive backs capitalize on them.

That’s exactly how good defenses become great defenses.

Omar Khan Deserves Some Credit

I’ve been critical of Omar Khan before.

There have been moves over the last couple years that I questioned.

But I also think it’s important to give credit when it’s deserved.

This might be the best offseason he’s put together.

Not necessarily because every move was flashy.

But because the roster feels more complete.

The weaknesses that existed a year ago were addressed.
The coaching staff feels stronger.
The supporting cast around Aaron Rodgers is significantly better.

If all of those moves hit, I think we’re looking at a football team that’s capable of winning the AFC North.

Why I’m More Optimistic Than Most People

Nationally, it doesn’t seem like many people are taking the Steelers all that seriously.

» The Ravens get more attention.

» The Bengals get more attention.

Some people don’t even have Pittsburgh finishing second in the division.

I understand why.

There’s risk.

A new coaching staff.
A 42-year-old quarterback.
An entirely different offensive philosophy.

Those are fair concerns.

But I also think people are overlooking how much better this roster feels than the one that won the AFC North a year ago.

There’s more talent.

There’s more creativity.

There’s more upside.

Final Thoughts

At the end of the day, I think the Steelers’ season comes down to one simple question:

Do the important pieces stay healthy long enough for all of these offseason changes to come together?

If they do, I think this team wins the AFC North, hosts a playoff game, and finally snaps its postseason losing streak.

If they don’t, particularly if Aaron Rodgers misses significant time, I think everything changes in a hurry.

That’s why this team is so fascinating.

The floor and the ceiling are farther apart than they’ve been in years.

Personally, I’m betting on the ceiling.

Not because I think everything is guaranteed to work.

But because, for the first time in a long time, I genuinely believe the Steelers have assembled a football team that’s capable of being better than simply “good enough.”

And after years of feeling like every season followed the exact same script, that’s reason enough to be excited.